Author Topic: Thoughts on Vick and Chris Johnson for 2011 season  (Read 5266 times)

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Normmm

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on: August 19, 2011, 11:05:40 am
So FF is getting started back up.  I'm drafting 5th in one of my leagues.  I think that will put both Vick and Chris Johnson being some of my best options.  But I don't like the red flags associated with both of them.

I know it depends on the specifics of each league.  But in general, would you take either of these guys at 5?  Would you take one over the other?

In this league the QBs are the top scorers own average.  So getting a top RB is a higher priority.  But...while Arian Foster was the top scorer over all, Vick was the highest scorer per game.  By a fairly large margin too.  Foster was at 24 ppg while Vick was at 32 ppg.

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


CharSFNiners

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Reply #1 on: August 19, 2011, 02:17:37 pm
I wouldn't trust Mike Vick with my dog.


felytle

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Reply #2 on: August 23, 2011, 09:18:22 am
imo you want to avoid both. You dont want rist with your early picks. Eagels gave up alot of sacks last year and Vick doesnt hold up long when he gets hit alot. Johnson is a serious threat to miss games this year with the contract hold out. if ur picking 5th foster, peterson, charles are definitly gone if not you should draft the one that fell. i think the people you should be considering are rodgers, rice, McCoy. Also not out of the question to consider a WR at the 5th pick if there is a elite WR u like.


Normmm

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Reply #3 on: August 23, 2011, 11:05:04 am
Yeah, I'm leaning towards hoping Rice falls to 5.

I agree both Johnson and Vick are risks.  But that's what I'm curious about.  At some point you have to say I'll take that risk.  Does that happen at pick 5?  Pick 10?  15?

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


Normmm

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Reply #4 on: August 23, 2011, 11:07:04 am
Side note:  Now that it appears NNN has 2 fantasy leagues, it seems people are more reluctant to share their thoughts.   :(

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


hootie

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Reply #5 on: August 23, 2011, 12:26:54 pm
I think McCoy is a risk.  I think Ronnie Brown will be a steal in the 12 round or so.
 
I wouldn't take Vick unless it's about 6 or so and then I like Aaron Rodgers better.  I'm thinking of getting a Romo or somebody in the 5th or so and getting RB and WR early.
 
The Johnson thing coould drag out, that is concerning
 
 
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felytle

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Reply #6 on: August 23, 2011, 03:57:32 pm
Yeah, I'm leaning towards hoping Rice falls to 5.

I agree both Johnson and Vick are risks.  But that's what I'm curious about.  At some point you have to say I'll take that risk.  Does that happen at pick 5?  Pick 10?  15?

of course imo but vick shouldnt go till second round. Rogers is the only QB i see as a possible first rounder. Johnson is still a consideration at 5 but its still really scary to me. i currently have him ranked at 10.


felytle

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Reply #7 on: August 23, 2011, 04:02:35 pm
I think McCoy is a risk.  I think Ronnie Brown will be a steal in the 12 round or so.
 
I wouldn't take Vick unless it's about 6 or so and then I like Aaron Rodgers better.  I'm thinking of getting a Romo or somebody in the 5th or so and getting RB and WR early.
 
The Johnson thing coould drag out, that is concerning

i am with you on waiting for a QB but what is ur thinking on Ronnie? I dont see it. He didnt do much in Miami so whats ur thinking it will be diffrent in Phi?


Charlotte2002

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Reply #8 on: August 23, 2011, 04:49:33 pm
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.
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Normmm

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I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


Normmm

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Reply #10 on: August 23, 2011, 04:55:49 pm
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.

That's sort of the line of thought I was taking.  I really do not want to take Vick.  I know he's a very high risk factor.  But in my league last year he was far and away the leader of points per game.  He was at 32 ppg.  While Foster and Rodgers were second at 24 ppg.  And everybody else fell in line very tightly.  23, 22, 21, etc.

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


Charlotte2002

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Reply #11 on: August 23, 2011, 05:09:02 pm
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.

That's sort of the line of thought I was taking.  I really do not want to take Vick.  I know he's a very high risk factor.  But in my league last year he was far and away the leader of points per game.  He was at 32 ppg.  While Foster and Rodgers were second at 24 ppg.  And everybody else fell in line very tightly.  23, 22, 21, etc.

I'd like to see a median points per week analysis based on my leagues scoring.  I might break out excel and make it happen.
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CMack124

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Reply #12 on: August 23, 2011, 05:11:14 pm
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.
6 points for a TD pass does throw a wrench in things. 

Is it a 10 team league?  In that format you pretty much have to get a QB with your 2nd pick if you pass on the first, but if there's only 10 teams, I think you'll be fine with the 10th best QB (or 9th or 8th, depending on how many get taken early, but 10th at worst).  Would you rather have AP and, say, Eli or Big Ben, or would you rather have Brady and Steven Jackson/Ahmad Bradshaw/Peyton Hillis?

Personally, assuming a 10 team league you should be able to get a good enough QB when it comes back to you, I would take AP.

Heck, if you are the last guy to take a QB, you can even roll the dice again and NOT take one the second time through, banking on nobody else grabbing 2 QBs in their first 4 picks.  Unless something breaks unusually, I like to load up on RBs/WRs and figure out QBs later, but I see the argument against that, especially in a 6 pt TD pass league.


CMack124

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Reply #13 on: August 23, 2011, 05:19:51 pm
So FF is getting started back up.  I'm drafting 5th in one of my leagues.  I think that will put both Vick and Chris Johnson being some of my best options.  But I don't like the red flags associated with both of them.

I know it depends on the specifics of each league.  But in general, would you take either of these guys at 5?  Would you take one over the other?

In this league the QBs are the top scorers own average.  So getting a top RB is a higher priority.  But...while Arian Foster was the top scorer over all, Vick was the highest scorer per game.  By a fairly large margin too.  Foster was at 24 ppg while Vick was at 32 ppg.
When's your draft?  CJ is flying to Tennessee soon to talk about his contract, so he might be signed soon, or he might be out of town soon and in for a lengthy holdout.

I'd take Vick over CJ.  The Vick risk is overblown, he destroyed everybody last year, he had a bad preseason game against one of the best defenses in the league.  Philly has too many weapons, if Vick is healthy I think he's a lock to be a top 2 QB this year, he's just too dangerous through air or ground.  You have injury risk with any player, VIck may be higher than others, but Tom Brady was pretty healthy until he blew out his knee a few years back, it's too random to think about IMO.  CJ is a legitimate risk because he might not be on the team for opening week, I'd stay away from him at #5 pending any further information.

For #5, if you want to play it safe, I would pick whoever is available out of:  Foster, AP, Rice and Charles, assuming one is.  After that, I would consider a QB or whoever you like best at WR.  I think there's a big separation between the top 4 RBs (5 if CJ plays) and the rest.  I don't like McCoy, Mendenhall or McFadden enough to take them there, unless it's PPR then I would grab McCoy in a heartbeat.


hootie

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Reply #14 on: August 23, 2011, 07:51:48 pm
I think McCoy is a risk.  I think Ronnie Brown will be a steal in the 12 round or so.
 
I wouldn't take Vick unless it's about 6 or so and then I like Aaron Rodgers better.  I'm thinking of getting a Romo or somebody in the 5th or so and getting RB and WR early.
 
The Johnson thing coould drag out, that is concerning

i am with you on waiting for a QB but what is ur thinking on Ronnie? I dont see it. He didnt do much in Miami so whats ur thinking it will be diffrent in Phi?

McCoy will get hurt and Brown will have value an you can get him late
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Charlotte2002

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Reply #15 on: August 23, 2011, 09:07:56 pm
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.
6 points for a TD pass does throw a wrench in things. 

Is it a 10 team league?  In that format you pretty much have to get a QB with your 2nd pick if you pass on the first, but if there's only 10 teams, I think you'll be fine with the 10th best QB (or 9th or 8th, depending on how many get taken early, but 10th at worst).  Would you rather have AP and, say, Eli or Big Ben, or would you rather have Brady and Steven Jackson/Ahmad Bradshaw/Peyton Hillis?

Personally, assuming a 10 team league you should be able to get a good enough QB when it comes back to you, I would take AP.

Heck, if you are the last guy to take a QB, you can even roll the dice again and NOT take one the second time through, banking on nobody else grabbing 2 QBs in their first 4 picks.  Unless something breaks unusually, I like to load up on RBs/WRs and figure out QBs later, but I see the argument against that, especially in a 6 pt TD pass league.

12 man league, so with the #1 pick, the 2nd level QBs will probably be the only ones available at #24.  I think you can find good value deeper in the draft at RB, I mean look at the guys that put up good numbers, Blount, Tolbert, Bradshaw, Foster.  The same can't be said about QBs, while some pay put up good #s, they aren't consistent week in and week out, and when you play head to head you need consistency in your lineup.  A QB pulling an 8 point game is a sure loss.
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Normmm

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Reply #16 on: August 23, 2011, 10:16:22 pm
So FF is getting started back up.  I'm drafting 5th in one of my leagues.  I think that will put both Vick and Chris Johnson being some of my best options.  But I don't like the red flags associated with both of them.

I know it depends on the specifics of each league.  But in general, would you take either of these guys at 5?  Would you take one over the other?

In this league the QBs are the top scorers own average.  So getting a top RB is a higher priority.  But...while Arian Foster was the top scorer over all, Vick was the highest scorer per game.  By a fairly large margin too.  Foster was at 24 ppg while Vick was at 32 ppg.
When's your draft?  CJ is flying to Tennessee soon to talk about his contract, so he might be signed soon, or he might be out of town soon and in for a lengthy holdout.

I'd take Vick over CJ.  The Vick risk is overblown, he destroyed everybody last year, he had a bad preseason game against one of the best defenses in the league.  Philly has too many weapons, if Vick is healthy I think he's a lock to be a top 2 QB this year, he's just too dangerous through air or ground.  You have injury risk with any player, VIck may be higher than others, but Tom Brady was pretty healthy until he blew out his knee a few years back, it's too random to think about IMO.  CJ is a legitimate risk because he might not be on the team for opening week, I'd stay away from him at #5 pending any further information.

For #5, if you want to play it safe, I would pick whoever is available out of:  Foster, AP, Rice and Charles, assuming one is.  After that, I would consider a QB or whoever you like best at WR.  I think there's a big separation between the top 4 RBs (5 if CJ plays) and the rest.  I don't like McCoy, Mendenhall or McFadden enough to take them there, unless it's PPR then I would grab McCoy in a heartbeat.

Draft is this Friday.  I'm thinking essentially the same as you.  If CJ signs, I'll take any of those 5 RBs(Foster, Charles, AP, Rice and CJ).  Personally I like taking CJ over Vick at 5.  I feel I can still get a fairly good QB in 2nd or 3rd round.  If the Yahoo rankings mean anything they have Brees at 18 and Brady at 22.

So I could do something like CJ(at 5)/Brady(at 16) vs a Vick(5)/Jones Drew(16).


I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


CMack124

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Reply #17 on: August 24, 2011, 08:00:51 am
12 man league, so with the #1 pick, the 2nd level QBs will probably be the only ones available at #24.  I think you can find good value deeper in the draft at RB, I mean look at the guys that put up good numbers, Blount, Tolbert, Bradshaw, Foster.  The same can't be said about QBs, while some pay put up good #s, they aren't consistent week in and week out, and when you play head to head you need consistency in your lineup.  A QB pulling an 8 point game is a sure loss.
12 man is different, you either take a QB with the first pick or you grab two second level guys later, hoping one breaks out or play the matchups week-to-week which is always frustrating.  QBs do come out of nowhere too, Orton and Fitzpatrick were mostly undrafted last year, Vick too, but that was a different situation.

The only other thing I would check would be the prior draft history (assuming this is a long-running league), what kind of QBs make it back around to #24?  If everybody drafts like it is normal rules, then there will be plenty of good starting QBs available.

Assuming the top 6-8 QBs all get taken in the first two rounds, then I would definitely grab your top QB with the 1st pick so you can forget about the position after that.


CMack124

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Reply #18 on: August 24, 2011, 08:09:59 am
Draft is this Friday.  I'm thinking essentially the same as you.  If CJ signs, I'll take any of those 5 RBs(Foster, Charles, AP, Rice and CJ).  Personally I like taking CJ over Vick at 5.  I feel I can still get a fairly good QB in 2nd or 3rd round.  If the Yahoo rankings mean anything they have Brees at 18 and Brady at 22.

So I could do something like CJ(at 5)/Brady(at 16) vs a Vick(5)/Jones Drew(16).
Tricky situation, because if CJ signs, he won't be there at 5, and if he doesn't, I wouldn't take him at 5.  Depends on the league, but Brady coming back around at 16 is a possibility, you should be able to get him, Brees or Rivers if you're set on taking a top QB in the 2nd round. 

The other option with CJ is to take him signed or unsigned and make sure to draft Ringer, a lot of people seem to think he is capable of putting up decent numbers if CJ isn't there.


felytle

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Reply #19 on: August 24, 2011, 08:50:44 am
I have the #1 pick, not sure what to do with it.  I don't trust any of the RBs, who I think are overvalued nowadays, especially in my league where QBs get 6 points for TDs just like WRs and RBs.  There were 100 points between the 1st QB and the 10th QB, there 100 points between the 1st RB and the 24th RB.

I am strongly considering Tom Brady at 1.

Thoughts.

My argument against that would be that if the points per td is 6 and the points per int is still -1 or -2 then that will make more QB's a viable option. Someone like Cutler puts up good numbers but is hurt by the ints he troughs. If your td/int ratio is close to one the larger the delta between td's and int's points the less you are hurt by your high ints.
 
consider this if Brady troughs 4td and 1 int and Cutler troughs 4td and 3int in scenario one 4pt td; -2pt int Brady scores 14 points and Cutler scores 10. if the scoring is 6pts and -2pts Brady scores 22 and Cutler scores 18. now what is the big deal. it's the percentage difference. in the first scenario Brady scores 40% more points. in the 6pt td league Brady only scores 22% more.
 
just something to think about.
 


Normmm

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Reply #20 on: August 24, 2011, 04:14:31 pm
Draft is this Friday.  I'm thinking essentially the same as you.  If CJ signs, I'll take any of those 5 RBs(Foster, Charles, AP, Rice and CJ).  Personally I like taking CJ over Vick at 5.  I feel I can still get a fairly good QB in 2nd or 3rd round.  If the Yahoo rankings mean anything they have Brees at 18 and Brady at 22.

So I could do something like CJ(at 5)/Brady(at 16) vs a Vick(5)/Jones Drew(16).
Tricky situation, because if CJ signs, he won't be there at 5, and if he doesn't, I wouldn't take him at 5.  Depends on the league, but Brady coming back around at 16 is a possibility, you should be able to get him, Brees or Rivers if you're set on taking a top QB in the 2nd round. 


Yeah, that's why I started the thread.  I have a feeling he won't be signed by Friday.  So I think he'll be there at 5.  At this point I'm hoping Rice falls to 5.  If not, I'll probably just wing it.  Lol.

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


CMack124

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Reply #21 on: August 24, 2011, 06:23:23 pm
Yeah, that's why I started the thread.  I have a feeling he won't be signed by Friday.  So I think he'll be there at 5.  At this point I'm hoping Rice falls to 5.  If not, I'll probably just wing it.  Lol.
If you do go with CJ, there's some speculation that Jamie Harper might be in line for the lead role if CJ's holdout goes into the season. 
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/First-Down-Foster-Tate-highlight-top-Week-2-ta?urn=fantasy-wp7082#remaining-content

Good luck, let us know who you end up grabbing.


Normmm

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Reply #22 on: August 28, 2011, 10:20:03 pm
I was able to get Rice at 5.  Somebody took MJD at 3!  It went mostly as I thought, besides MJD.  Vick went 6th.  Then Johnson went 7th.  Unless Johnson signs, I see him going 4-6 in most leagues.

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


Dowless

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Reply #23 on: August 28, 2011, 10:32:04 pm
I think CJ is a risk in the 1st round.  Look for him to slow way down this year.  Too many touches over the last two seasons and now he has a big ego.  I see problems in this guys future.  Also, you have a new HC in Tennessee this year, and no threat at the QB or WR position.  Hassellbeck is ok, but getting old and no talent surrounds him.  Look for 7 to 8 in the box for Defenses.


CMack124

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Reply #24 on: August 29, 2011, 07:31:32 pm
I was able to get Rice at 5.  Somebody took MJD at 3!  It went mostly as I thought, besides MJD.  Vick went 6th.  Then Johnson went 7th.  Unless Johnson signs, I see him going 4-6 in most leagues.
Nice break for you.  I think MJD has a first round caliber year, but taking him with Rice and another top RB still on the board is crazy.


 

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