Author Topic: Calling it now!  (Read 2879 times)

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919R

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Reply #25 on: November 02, 2017, 10:09:06 am
^ id be curious to see stats of big jumps year over year. Our schedule is so weak we would need 26+ wins for an at large bid.


You don't know how "weak" or strong our schedule is at this time. That's the point, you are assuming most/all these teams will be the same as last year. Teams all start each year anew and things can change quite a bit from year to year.


919R

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Reply #26 on: November 02, 2017, 10:10:33 am
Mods should rename this thread to "Big Dreams".  We are so far away from the NCAA at this point.
.    Not really. Previous years results have nothing to do with this year. We may not make it this season but we have just as good a chance as anyone not in  p5 league.
I hear you and I love the optimism.  I hope we do it, but the odds are not in our favor.  Consider this. 

1) We have only finished with a record above .500 in conference play 2 times out of the last 10 seasons and 0 times in the last 7.
2) Conference USA has been a one bid league since we joined and I don't see that changing.
3) Conference USA top half is a pretty dang good group of teams.  La. Tech has been a 20 win team since we joined, but MT has really been good as well.  Rice rolled us twice last year by 17 and 19 points.  I could go on.  So the expectation here is that we get so much better and/or they get so much worse that we surpass them.
4) Conference tourney is such a wildcard.  Not only do you have to be pretty good (20+ wins) to get in that 1st bye, but you need to be playing your best ball and have a little luck to win it all.
5) Transfers in college basketball add another wildcard from season to season.  How many of these freshmen will be here in year two?  Davis could see that there is nothing left to play for in college after this year and give it a go at the pros.  That would be good, but is ambitious as well.

Like I said, I hope you guys are right, but I still think that you are dreaming big.  Price better be bringing in good talent each year to compete with the top of CUSA.
.   So the league is really good, but has almost no chance for 2 bids?          Also, as I said before, what we have done recently has zero to do with this team. We had a stretch of 9 NCAA bids in 12 years......since then, 12 years with no bids. Things can and do change, regardless of recent trends. This team will be BY FAR Price's most balanced. I am confident, barring major injuries, that we will be in post season play of some sort, beyond the CUSA tourney.                          It seems like some posters think RPI rankings actually carry over from season to season. We don't have to "get out of the 200s" because everyone starts the season equal in the RPI. You win enough against quality opponents and you can have a solid RPI.

Unless you have been hiding under a rock, you should know how the NCAA treats CUSA and other non-P5 leagues.  If you were hiding under a rock let me introduce you to the 2015-2016 UAB squad that was 16-2 in conference and 26-6 overall and the 2014-2015 La. Tech squad that was 15-3 in conference and 25-8 overall.  Both NIT teams after they lost in the conference tournament.  Is it impossible for us to go to the NCAA in two years? No, but it is going to be tough for me to reach that conclusion coming off a 13 win season in a good, albeit disrespected league.


Check those 2 teams resumes (beyond W-L record).


77niner

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Reply #27 on: November 02, 2017, 12:20:41 pm
I don't even understand how you can call the conference good.  There is zero chance this team goes dancing this year.


49r9r

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Reply #28 on: November 02, 2017, 01:50:08 pm
I don't even understand how you can call the conference good. 

You cannot.  It is definitely the worst conference for basketball we have ever been in, and there is not even a close second; not even the old Sun Belt that we helped form.
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Ben H

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Reply #29 on: November 02, 2017, 02:11:29 pm
^ id be curious to see stats of big jumps year over year. Our schedule is so weak we would need 26+ wins for an at large bid.

https://themineshaftblog.wordpress.com/year-end-rankings-stats/

The largest jump in the past 20 years was going from 156 to 79 from the '06-07 season to the '07-08 season. Assuming we can make that big of a jump again that puts us at 160 which is still pretty bad.

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade.

I see essentially no chance that we will be good enough to make the NIT. The good news is that our conference is so crappy and we have Jon Davis, so there is always a chance to get to the big dance just by winning the conference tournament.


TimeToGoJudy

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Reply #30 on: November 02, 2017, 02:43:37 pm
I don't even understand how you can call the conference good.  There is zero chance this team goes dancing this year.

Thats part of the issue - we have been bad in one of the worst conferences.  If we want to make this closer to our old SunBelt, we have to start carrying some weight.


919R

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Reply #31 on: November 02, 2017, 03:11:00 pm
^ id be curious to see stats of big jumps year over year. Our schedule is so weak we would need 26+ wins for an at large bid.

https://themineshaftblog.wordpress.com/year-end-rankings-stats/

The largest jump in the past 20 years was going from 156 to 79 from the '06-07 season to the '07-08 season. Assuming we can make that big of a jump again that puts us at 160 which is still pretty bad.

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade.

I see essentially no chance that we will be good enough to make the NIT. The good news is that our conference is so crappy and we have Jon Davis, so there is always a chance to get to the big dance just by winning the conference tournament.


Prediction: Barring a rash of injuries we will finish this season better than 160.


itsbraille49

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Reply #32 on: November 03, 2017, 07:46:57 am
We’ll find out very quickly what we have. 
Our first two D1 games are against projected Top 100 teams, our last Top 100 win was against South Carolina in 2014.
If we can beat CofC, not just sneak by with a win but really beat them, it should bode well for our chances to earn a bye in CUSA.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 07:53:21 am by itsbraille49 »

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49r9r

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Reply #33 on: November 03, 2017, 10:04:20 am
So we're discussing if we'll be successful by improving our RPI to 160?  That is barely in the top half.  And basketball is better than football.  The only thing we need now is an AD that is either incompetent or just doesn't give a crap about men's sports. 
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 10:07:34 am by 49r9r »
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NewNiner

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Reply #34 on: November 03, 2017, 10:07:23 am
CofC was really good last year in a really tough conference.  I haven't paid as much attention to them this off-season, but they could be one of our stouter opponents, for sure.
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Ben H

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Reply #35 on: November 03, 2017, 10:47:07 am
So we're discussing if we'll be successful by improving our RPI to 160?  That is barely in the top half.  And basketball is better than football.  The only thing we need now is an AD that is either incompetent or just doesn't give a crap about men's sports.

While I am super depressed about basketball and our athletics department as a whole I will consider it a success to reach an RPI of around 150-160. Below that and I'll probably just stop paying attention anymore. This year is it for me.

I think many of y'all don't realize how difficult it is to move up 100 spots in RPI in a single year. It's not that I consider 150 to be a good, but we were absolutely bottom of the barrel terrible last year. It's going to take a lot to even get us back to being meh/blah (150-160) and I think many of you are being overly optimistic.

*edit*

Let me put this into an analogy in case any of you misunderstand what I'm saying.

Our basketball program is currently failing. We are receiving an F. Not only an F, but we are so terrible right now we have an average of like a 30. I consider a 160 to be a C-, maybe a D+ for our program. I don't want a C-, but we are currently so far underwater that at this point all we can hope for is to get a passing grade by the end of the year.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 10:54:23 am by Ben H »


9erken

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Reply #36 on: November 03, 2017, 12:18:29 pm
Mods should rename this thread to "Big Dreams".  We are so far away from the NCAA at this point.
.    Not really. Previous years results have nothing to do with this year. We may not make it this season but we have just as good a chance as anyone not in  p5 league.
Not zero. We have many of the same players, and the same coaching staff. What you said elsewhere works better, a lot can change from one year to the next.

I doubt we'll be top half though. Part of the reason is that CUSA will probably be bad enough that our rpi will be dragged down some even if we win games. The other part of the reason is I have yet to see the team play a cohesive defense under Price. Hopefully having more of an inside presence down low will cover for deficiencies elsewhere, but I'd like to see some signs of that first.


919R

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Reply #37 on: November 03, 2017, 10:13:47 pm
Mods should rename this thread to "Big Dreams".  We are so far away from the NCAA at this point.
.    Not really. Previous years results have nothing to do with this year. We may not make it this season but we have just as good a chance as anyone not in  p5 league.
Not zero. We have many of the same players, and the same coaching staff. What you said elsewhere works better, a lot can change from one year to the next.

I doubt we'll be top half though. Part of the reason is that CUSA will probably be bad enough that our rpi will be dragged down some even if we win games. The other part of the reason is I have yet to see the team play a cohesive defense under Price. Hopefully having more of an inside presence down low will cover for deficiencies elsewhere, but I'd like to see some signs of that first.
.   It seems that most of you have forgotten that we literally had no

true centers or even close to it last year. The fact that we were fairly close to .500 with a 6'4" loose cannon playing center was actually quite an achievement. This year we are even deeper at the 1-3 spots, and will have true size in the middle, allowing our true 4 to play his natural position as well. Ive been a die hard follower of this team since the early 80s. I am not saying we are back to 1992-2005 level, but we will surprise lots of people this year, including most of nnn it appears. If we don't win 18-19 games+ this year I will surprised and disappointed. This team should be the best it has been since atleast Majors NIT team that lost to Providence.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 10:15:35 pm by 919R »


sportsman1417

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Reply #38 on: November 03, 2017, 10:22:36 pm
We had centers. Coach didn't play them. They wiffed on big guys and left us with crap. Who is to say these guys will be any different? Some people are half full while others are half empty.


Niner National

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Reply #39 on: November 03, 2017, 10:35:11 pm
Mods should rename this thread to "Big Dreams".  We are so far away from the NCAA at this point.
.    Not really. Previous years results have nothing to do with this year. We may not make it this season but we have just as good a chance as anyone not in  p5 league.
Not zero. We have many of the same players, and the same coaching staff. What you said elsewhere works better, a lot can change from one year to the next.

I doubt we'll be top half though. Part of the reason is that CUSA will probably be bad enough that our rpi will be dragged down some even if we win games. The other part of the reason is I have yet to see the team play a cohesive defense under Price. Hopefully having more of an inside presence down low will cover for deficiencies elsewhere, but I'd like to see some signs of that first.
.   It seems that most of you have forgotten that we literally had no

true centers or even close to it last year. The fact that we were fairly close to .500 with a 6'4" loose cannon playing center was actually quite an achievement. This year we are even deeper at the 1-3 spots, and will have true size in the middle, allowing our true 4 to play his natural position as well. Ive been a die hard follower of this team since the early 80s. I am not saying we are back to 1992-2005 level, but we will surprise lots of people this year, including most of nnn it appears. If we don't win 18-19 games+ this year I will surprised and disappointed. This team should be the best it has been since atleast Majors NIT team that lost to Providence.
I don't disagree with what you said,  but our depth in the post is still thin.  I don't see Bryant getting many minutes.

Supica has mono, which can linger for a while. Beyond that, he's still only a freshman.

Other than those two,  we only have Haslem and at his size, I doubt he can play more than 25 or 30 minutes a game without being gassed.

I think we will be a lot better when Haslem is on the court,  but when he's not, we might look a lot like last year's team.

I expect improvement and I'm actually excited about this season unlike last year,  but I think post season is a long shot at the moment. Hoping I'm wrong.


9erken

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Reply #40 on: November 04, 2017, 12:30:44 am
Mods should rename this thread to "Big Dreams".  We are so far away from the NCAA at this point.
.    Not really. Previous years results have nothing to do with this year. We may not make it this season but we have just as good a chance as anyone not in  p5 league.
Not zero. We have many of the same players, and the same coaching staff. What you said elsewhere works better, a lot can change from one year to the next.

I doubt we'll be top half though. Part of the reason is that CUSA will probably be bad enough that our rpi will be dragged down some even if we win games. The other part of the reason is I have yet to see the team play a cohesive defense under Price. Hopefully having more of an inside presence down low will cover for deficiencies elsewhere, but I'd like to see some signs of that first.
.   It seems that most of you have forgotten that we literally had no

true centers or even close to it last year. The fact that we were fairly close to .500 with a 6'4" loose cannon playing center was actually quite an achievement. This year we are even deeper at the 1-3 spots, and will have true size in the middle, allowing our true 4 to play his natural position as well. Ive been a die hard follower of this team since the early 80s. I am not saying we are back to 1992-2005 level, but we will surprise lots of people this year, including most of nnn it appears. If we don't win 18-19 games+ this year I will surprised and disappointed. This team should be the best it has been since atleast Majors NIT team that lost to Providence.
Well I did note the inside presence possibly covering for defensive deficiencies more, so I didn't forget that at all. I think it will help a lot actually, provided the new guys can play minutes and contribute at a minimum level, the latter being a real question at this point. You're putting a lot of faith in guys that either haven't proven solid play yet because they are new or have been underwhelming so far. It'll be great if that happens and our young guys should improve with experience, but our history is one of post guys taking longer than perimeter guys to contribute in part because we rarely get post guys that are ready to contribute early.

But even the perimeter defense has been suspect in past years even with taking the lack of post presence into account. Guys don't rotate to cover holes well at all, positioning is poor both on-ball and away from the ball, and we're getting beaten by easy layups that a shotblocker is not going to always stop. I assume Price has some idea what needs to be done on defense given his vast experience in the game, but I'm not convinced he knows how to get the players to accomplish his vision. You're right that I'll be surprised if we are top half. I really really hope you're right about 19+ wins, this program needs to finally have a surprisingly good season, something that hasn't happened in a long, long time (that Major team was a mild surprise at best, and I'm less critical of Major than most fans I'd guess). My guess is that you've got a higher opinion of Price as a coach than I do at this point.


ghostofclt

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Reply #41 on: November 04, 2017, 06:51:47 am
clt says we already miss beans.


919R

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Reply #42 on: November 04, 2017, 09:23:05 am
We had centers. Coach didn't play them. They wiffed on big guys and left us with crap. Who is to say these guys will be any different? Some people are half full while others are half empty.
.    I am saying these guys will be different, since you asked. The new big guys don't have to be great. They just need to be respectable. Previous guys were tall but were not centers.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 09:25:21 am by 919R »


Niner National

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Reply #43 on: November 04, 2017, 11:43:29 am
We had centers. Coach didn't play them. They wiffed on big guys and left us with crap. Who is to say these guys will be any different? Some people are half full while others are half empty.
.    I am saying these guys will be different, since you asked. The new big guys don't have to be great. They just need to be respectable. Previous guys were tall but were not centers.
beans definitely was. He wasn't great, but he wasn't as bad as having a 6'4 center out there either.  I never understood leaving him on the bench as much as we did.


919R

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Reply #44 on: November 04, 2017, 02:41:56 pm
We had centers. Coach didn't play them. They wiffed on big guys and left us with crap. Who is to say these guys will be any different? Some people are half full while others are half empty.
.    I am saying these guys will be different, since you asked. The new big guys don't have to be great. They just need to be respectable. Previous guys were tall but were not centers.
beans definitely was. He wasn't great, but he wasn't as bad as having a 6'4 center out there either.  I never understood leaving him on the bench as much as we did.
.  Maybe, but the fact is price didn't think he was good enough and I respect Price's bball iq and recognize that he knows more than any of us do.


Nugget

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Reply #45 on: November 04, 2017, 04:42:07 pm
We had centers. Coach didn't play them. They wiffed on big guys and left us with crap. Who is to say these guys will be any different? Some people are half full while others are half empty.
.    I am saying these guys will be different, since you asked. The new big guys don't have to be great. They just need to be respectable. Previous guys were tall but were not centers.
beans definitely was. He wasn't great, but he wasn't as bad as having a 6'4 center out there either.  I never understood leaving him on the bench as much as we did.


Beans just played his first game for Eastern Washington.  He got 25 minutes in this exhibition against the University of Portland, and went 6-13 from the field, with 9 rebounds.  Good stats, right?  Sure, but he had one offensive rebound and eight defensive.  How can he be so imbalanced?  Well, 7 of his 13 shots were from outside the 3-pt line so for half the game (the offensive half) his team had no center because he wasn't where they needed him.  Instead they had a very tall guard.  Sound familiar?  Don't get me wrong, 18 points and 9 rebounds is great, but we needed a center.


Stay tuned for an update on his next game against Walla Walla University.  Seriously.  I need one of their sweatshirts.


EDIT:  I forgot to mention, the Eagles had 500 people at the game.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 04:55:53 pm by Nugget »
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ghostofclt

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Reply #46 on: November 04, 2017, 04:53:29 pm
 clt says beans is our basketball version of riley


 

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