Author Topic: Conference Realignment  (Read 304762 times)

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moss2k

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Reply #50 on: November 19, 2012, 10:40:54 pm
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
Remember how no one (football conferences) wanted Kansas if B12 blew up, use that logic regarding Duke too.


ZombieLew

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Reply #51 on: November 19, 2012, 11:17:16 pm
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
Remember how no one (football conferences) wanted Kansas if B12 blew up, use that logic regarding Duke too.

Hell, I'll gladly welcome them to BE-USA.
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Normmm

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Reply #52 on: November 19, 2012, 11:38:39 pm
Chapel Hill won't leave the ACC unless the conference is on the edge of implosion.  They will take us in before Chapel Hill lets that happen.  They run the ACC and I doubt they see many scenarios that would lead them to another league where the voice would carry far less weight.


If they think there's a chance an NCSU, FSU or Clemson might take "their" spot in the SEC, I think there's a chance.  If Duke goes, I don't really see a downside to it for them(UNC-CH).  They should still be at the top in bball and get more money from football.

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


NinerWupAss

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Reply #53 on: November 19, 2012, 11:41:22 pm
Chapel Hill won't leave the ACC unless the conference is on the edge of implosion.  They will take us in before Chapel Hill lets that happen.  They run the ACC and I doubt they see many scenarios that would lead them to another league where the voice would carry far less weight.


If they think there's a chance an NCSU, FSU or Clemson might take "their" spot in the SEC, I think there's a chance.  If Duke goes, I don't really see a downside to it for them(UNC-CH).  They should still be at the top in bball and get more money from football.


Don't under estimate the amount of Chapel Hill's hubris.
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Normmm

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Reply #54 on: November 19, 2012, 11:42:34 pm
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
Remember how no one (football conferences) wanted Kansas if B12 blew up, use that logic regarding Duke too.


While I do think football is driving everything, a revamped SEC bball with Duke and UNC-CH could be very appealing to them. They might not mind having a few bottom feeders in football if it means boosting bball.


« Last Edit: November 19, 2012, 11:45:22 pm by Normmm »

I think Normmm was probably right all along, we'll be really good next year.


NewNiner

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Reply #55 on: November 20, 2012, 06:55:33 am
I see UVA/UNC-CHeat to B10, GT/Clemson to B12, NCSU/VPISU to SEC all as possibilities, though unlikely ones.
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cltniners

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Reply #56 on: November 20, 2012, 07:09:25 am
clt says UNC CHeat would not get into the big10 with massive academic fraud being discovered daily.


ChevEE

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Reply #57 on: November 20, 2012, 07:18:33 am
I understand other conferences make more money than the ACC, but the ACC was included in the main 5 with the new BCS layout.  The Big East got bumped.  So if anything, the ACC was helped by Maryland leaving as far as football goes.  Replace them with better football.  I kind of see a similarity in the ACC with last weeks BCS stuff and ourselves/USF when we got into CUSA the first time.  They have an opportunity.  New life.  Build up football, don't lose it.


My biggest fear is someone other than us is poached from CUSA and App gets an invite...
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 07:20:42 am by ChevEE »
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Ninerdawg

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Reply #58 on: November 20, 2012, 07:32:52 am
There are currently 5 "Power" conferences, but this is clearly an unstable situation. I suspect that eventually we will see 4 power conferences emerge, each with 16 teams. This is much more stable because it allows conferences to use a 9 game schedule with round-robin scheduling within divisions and a 4 year rotation of 2 games per year in the other conference (or over 8 years for home and home.) Plus it essentially makes the conference championship games the first round of an 8 team playoff system.

Three will be the SEC, BIG 10, and the Pac 10. The fight for survival will be between the Big 12 and the ACC. The signs are not good for the ACC right now. The SEC and Big 12 have just created a Rose-bowl like Sugar Bowl. The ACC is out in the cold - even the Orange Bowl is about to lock up a deal where the ACC Champion plays something like the #3 SEC school. Semi-getting Notre Dame was huge for the ACC, but losing Maryland hurts - much more than they really want to admit. It is the first sign from an\ mainline schools that they don't think the ACC can be one of the remaining four power conferences. If FSU jumps to the Big 12, look for Virginia Tech and Clemson to join the SEC, and for the ACC to become something like the Big East.


Honest Niner

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Reply #59 on: November 20, 2012, 07:43:20 am
I understand other conferences make more money than the ACC, but the ACC was included in the main 5 with the new BCS layout.  The Big East got bumped.  So if anything, the ACC was helped by Maryland leaving as far as football goes.  Replace them with better football.  I kind of see a similarity in the ACC with last weeks BCS stuff and ourselves/USF when we got into CUSA the first time.  They have an opportunity.  New life.  Build up football, don't lose it.


My biggest fear is someone other than us is poached from CUSA and App gets an invite...

Agreed. App going to C-USA or any FBS conference will hurt our recruitment effort. Its a much easier sell to say FBS>FCS but if we are both FBS than it becomes tradition of winning vs. brand new facilities. Not sure we end up smelling like roses.

I am excited and a bit worried about these moves. They are happening too fast for us to take advantage of it. I would have preferred this sort of thing happened next year or the year ater. Then we could have built up our football a bit and have a real shot at the BE. Right now I do not think we could get any kind of invite into the BE


Tintin

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Reply #60 on: November 20, 2012, 08:34:32 am
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
Remember how no one (football conferences) wanted Kansas if B12 blew up, use that logic regarding Duke too.


This would go double if not triple for wake forest.
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VA49er

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Reply #61 on: November 20, 2012, 08:50:49 am
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
Yeah, the SEC already has it's token "academic"


VA49er

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Reply #62 on: November 20, 2012, 08:51:42 am
clt predicts fsu and nc state to sec.




acc is breaking apart.

In all seriousness I could see a move by Chapel Hill and Duke to the SEC.  The SEC doesn't need any more good football, and a Basketball conference with Duke, UNC, Florida, and UK would be arguably the best basketball conference, which could potentially create even more lucrative TV contract figures.

Chapel Hill maybe.  I can't see a scenario where the SEC wants Duke.  I think they would go Big 10 before SEC.
The SEC already has its token "academic" school in Vandy.  They don't need Duke. 


ZombieLew

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Reply #63 on: November 20, 2012, 11:14:51 am
If the ACC does break apart, we're in trouble. All of those roads that could lead us to the Big East... We'll get cut off by the schools that aren't taken by the other conferences. Wake and Duke would almost certainly be Big East bound, as well as BC, Miami, Pitt and 'Cuse.

The ACC staying together is integral in us getting the band back together. If the ACC falls apart after that happens, then that's great... we likely end up with Duke and Wake. If not...

...then we're on the outside looking in for a long, long time.
DUCK FAVIDSON


donkeyjaws

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Reply #64 on: November 20, 2012, 11:35:22 am
I see a new band of conferences developing....



Powerbait

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Reply #65 on: November 20, 2012, 11:40:28 am
NCSU is the only NC School that really fits the SEC mold.  No way Duke gets a look and Chapel Hill would be a second class citizen in the SEC so I doubt they would make that move. 


amnesiac

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Reply #66 on: November 20, 2012, 03:02:42 pm



Maybe some of these schools begin to bail on this, and the
old southern ivy is formed.


Duke vandy tulane rice wake and the military academies.  I would guess ga tech and UVA would evaluate such a league and potentially be willing to give up a football title shot and football money to play at that level.









If duke and unc maintained their bball home and home
then you still have maintained what is really left of acc bball tradition etc.. Losing md has a huge impact on what was any type of parity in acc hoops, they were the bridge between 1st tier and 2nd tier bball in that league.


ZombieLew

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Reply #67 on: November 20, 2012, 04:14:37 pm



Maybe some of these schools begin to bail on this, and the
old southern ivy is formed.


Duke vandy tulane rice wake and the military academies.  I would guess ga tech and UVA would evaluate such a league and potentially be willing to give up a football title shot and football money to play at that level.









If duke and unc maintained their bball home and home
then you still have maintained what is really left of acc bball tradition etc.. Losing md has a huge impact on what was any type of parity in acc hoops, they were the bridge between 1st tier and 2nd tier bball in that league.

A "magnolia league" would definitely be interesting to see... but I'm not sure there are enough schools in the South to do it. Tulane, Vandy, Duke, Wake, SMU, and Rice... but I doubt Chapel Hill or UVa make the jump. The idea of the Magnolia League, after all, was to bring together the academically minded private schools of the South. I could see those six going after a few basketball only schools like Davidson and W&M (not private but very prestigious) to round out the conference, but they'd still be two short of being a recognized conference for football.

Not to mention, could you imagine the amount of smug that would come out of that conference?

Jesus, Ducktown is bad enough already.
DUCK FAVIDSON


49r9r

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Reply #68 on: November 20, 2012, 04:33:50 pm

Since I've seen it mentioned in the O a few times in recent years that UNC-chapel hill has a "BIG TIME" football program, I'm guessing the SEC will want to snatch them from the ACC.  After all, I don't recall the O using the term "BIG TIME" to describe any other teams in the ACC, so chapel hill must be the only big time program.
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zerogeneticsdc

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Reply #69 on: November 21, 2012, 08:52:24 am
There's no way Vandy leaves the SEC. Way too much money tied up in it. Basketball is good, football is better. Not to mention the tradition. There is a reason no one outside of fans (not Vandy fans, btw) has discussed a possible departure.

The SEC has made efforts to continue to increase academic rep, which is part of the reason they added TAMU and Mizzou. Both schools are in the AAU, increasing AAU membership in the SEC to 3 (Vandy included). It's become a high priority. This has to provide further appeal to Vandy as an institution.

The only ACC schools really ever mentioned in terms of SEC membership here in SEC country are VaTech and NCSU. Duke was briefly mentioned a few times for basketball purposes being that it is very similar to Vandy, but that conversation really didn't get off the ground. Maryland was also mentioned briefly. This has EVERYTHING to do with getting into the NC and VA markets.

This is all based on analysis/articles written by sports writers here in the SEC (largely UT folk) as well as general consensus from fans.
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stonecoldken

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Reply #70 on: November 21, 2012, 09:59:55 am
ACC can't fall apart.  $50 Mil. Exit Fee costs too much.  Only UMD is that dumb to pay that much.
 
BE is falling apart.  We're better in C-USA.  If anything ACC will steal the old band (UL, UC, USF, MU for B-Ball) from Be.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2012, 10:10:39 am by stonecoldken »
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NinerWupAss

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Reply #71 on: November 21, 2012, 10:04:11 am
ACC can't fall apart.  $50 Mil. Exit Fee costs too much.  Only UMD is that dumb to pay that much.
 
BE is falling apart.  We're better in C-USA.  If anything ACC will steal the band from Be.


When tv networks are pulling in 30-40 mil per year per school that $50 fee doesn't look that bad.



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ApexNiner

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Reply #72 on: November 21, 2012, 10:07:25 am
yeah what NinerWupAdd said. However, I wonder what happens if the business model of automatic cable subscribers disappears because of changing technology in those B10 markets. Easy money is gone.


NinerWupAss

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Reply #73 on: November 21, 2012, 10:13:03 am
yeah what NinerWupAdd said. However, I wonder what happens if the business model of automatic cable subscribers disappears because of changing technology in those B10 markets. Easy money is gone.


Yeah I was just telling a coworker that this is just like big business.  Consolidation and then at some point in the future, might be 10 years might be 30 things will unravel and go the other way.  New technology, new revenue streams etc.  We may see a lull in conference alignment in the future once these big conferences start hitting 16 schools, but in the long run movement will happen again as schools are always looking for the next way to make a few more bucks.
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