Author Topic: Poll: What if we are worse next year  (Read 3144 times)

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charlotte004

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Reply #25 on: March 03, 2017, 11:49:12 am
Price needs 5 years, maybe 6.  If we don't have serious buzz around the Program in Year 5 or 6, which for some may be too long, then the Price experiment is over.  He will resign before being fired.  Next year will be more of the same.  Maybe they will surprise us all, but Year 4 should be a significant improvement and Year 5 should be talk of NCAA Tournament and winning the conference.  I'm being optimistic here, but we didn't hire Price to run a "middle of the pack" 13-16 win team every year.  And if that's the case by Year 5, he resigns.


If we wait 5 or 6 years and it isn't turned around we might as well pack in the basketball program and drop the sport.

Agreed, this recruiting cycle and next years play are key. If we don't close well with recruits this year, and don't win 18-20 next year its time to cut bait.

Anybody noticed what is happening at NC State?  Look at what Gottfried has accomplished there and he's getting run out of town.  Consequently, articles are popping up calling the job a black hole.  No coach wants to go there.  If we cut bait after 3 years, how does that make us look?  Granted any bad PR for Judy Rose would be much welcomed.


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Reply #26 on: March 03, 2017, 11:54:09 am
I like so many things about Price and really want him to succeed but if doesn't get some players in here he's not gonna make it long term.

We aren't going to get the Lonzo Ball's of the world but we need to be getting better talent than the rest of CUSA.  I can't imagine that it's easier to recruit to Huntington, WV than Charlotte, NC. 

Hell, Alan Major got talent here and that really is not debatable considering that the guys he had here and coming here are ACC contributors.


He did and then many of them left - which should make you question what he was selling.  I don't know how Mark sells things, but I have a feeling maybe he is being too honest.  With Woods and Dorn he seemed to not be interested in playing the game.  I am sure 2k has better line of site to this than most of us.
I'm pretty sure Woods only have stayed if Dinkins came on board with Watkins (whatever their arrangement would have been).  Once everyone else was gone, Dorn took off.


moss2k

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Reply #27 on: March 03, 2017, 11:55:37 am
Price needs 5 years, maybe 6.  If we don't have serious buzz around the Program in Year 5 or 6, which for some may be too long, then the Price experiment is over.  He will resign before being fired.  Next year will be more of the same.  Maybe they will surprise us all, but Year 4 should be a significant improvement and Year 5 should be talk of NCAA Tournament and winning the conference.  I'm being optimistic here, but we didn't hire Price to run a "middle of the pack" 13-16 win team every year.  And if that's the case by Year 5, he resigns.


If we wait 5 or 6 years and it isn't turned around we might as well pack in the basketball program and drop the sport.

Agreed, this recruiting cycle and next years play are key. If we don't close well with recruits this year, and don't win 18-20 next year its time to cut bait.

Anybody noticed what is happening at NC State?  Look at what Gottfried has accomplished there and he's getting run out of town.  Consequently, articles are popping up calling the job a black hole.  No coach wants to go there.  If we cut bait after 3 years, how does that make us look?  Granted any bad PR for Judy Rose would be much welcomed.
Firing Price after just 3 years after he needs a complete rebuilding and 10+ years of no NCAA's, this place would scream toxic to any worthy candidate.


Price and company have to get some big men, we know it and they know it. Let's see what the roster looks like come this Fall.


itsbraille49

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Reply #28 on: March 03, 2017, 12:04:44 pm
He did and then many of them left - which should make you question what he was selling.  I don't know how Mark sells things, but I have a feeling maybe he is being too honest.  With Woods and Dorn he seemed to not be interested in playing the game.  I am sure 2k has better line of site to this than most of us.
How many with actual talent left? I can't remember everyone but Clark didn't do anything when he left. Henry, Clayton, Thorne, Williams were here entire time. Lester was graids. Ingram is the one guy that comes to mind that hurt to lose. Obviously Woods/Dorn once he was let go. I am sure I am missing people but I don't remember losing that much true talent.


Talent isn't the only thing to look at.  There is value in roster stability, not to mention the APR impact of a roster that is constantly in flux.


Let's see the players Major couldnt keep:
Spears - Behavior---Had to kick him. Lutz guy.
Ingram - Transfer ---Impact loss
Clark - Transfer---Not any good
EVic - Transfer---Can't help what mom wants
Big Phil - Grades---Phil was like 22 or 23. Get your big ass in class. Lutz guy
Lester - Grades---He is the type of player you have to take a chance on. He had problems from the very beginning
Bryan - Transfer---Not any good
KJ - Transfer---5th year right, Lutz guy.
Demario - Rules---Can't help stupid. Again, type of guy you have take a chance on. He was better than damn near anyone brought in by Price.
Luka - Stuff---Not any good
Gohkan - Back Home---Big balls, not any good. Lutz guy.
Deuce - Transfer---Lutz guy


I like how we s*** on Major for players leaving since they were forced to stay, yet Price gets a bare cupboard and all the time in the world.


Yes some were forced to stay and I think we see now that was the smarter approach.

I think there were too many variables in play to say which approach was smarter. Neither situation was good. I think Price could have better handled a situation similar to when Major took over , and Major could have better handled a situation similar to when Price took over.

Price signed a 5-year contract. If he signed a 6-year or 7-year contract, next year would not matter as much. It's clear this year doesn't matter much for his future, that's why he is not playing his 7-footers even when we're giving up 50 points in the paint, but that's a different conversation.

He signed a 5-year contract, and giving him a 4th-year would require an extension of at least 1 year. If we get worse next year, I don't know how anyone could have any confidence that he's the guy to fix things. Nobody's asking us to earn an at-large bid, but if the team shows no improvement or worst case scenario even more regression it'll be clear (to me) that keeping Price would just be digging the whole deeper.

But this is Charlotte, Judy "Student Fees Paid For My Boat" Rose is tied at hip with Price. Even though Phil is an absolute boob, he would have to axe Judy if she fired a third MBB coach (that she hired) in the span of 8 years. But Phil is detached and apathetic enough to keep letting Price coach as long as Judy doesn't admit she was wrong (again).

I hope the team improves next year, but with out some discipline being coached on defense, or a big man that contributes, it seems improbable.

I'll get season tickets next year, as long as our home schedule is 100% D1, to cheer the Niners on.

C-Pip's right.  About EVERYTHING.

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9erken

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Reply #29 on: March 03, 2017, 12:38:57 pm
Yes some were forced to stay and I think we see now that was the smarter approach.
I disagree for both coaches. Major was a good recruiter, the extra available spots would likely have been filled with more decent players. If those Lutz guys are allowed to leave, I think the program would've been in better shape longer term, though it might depend on whether Braswell decides to bolt right away. I don't think Major was all that hamstrung by lack of success on the court when he was recruiting, considering he got Woods and Dorn here, followed by Izundu seemingly, with some pretty awful years directly before. Holding players was a bad move by Rose in my view and it made it tougher for Major in the very area he seemed worst at dealing with, team chemistry and cohesiveness. Eventually it wouldn't have worked out anyway because I don't think Major was a good coach for many other reasons.

Now for Price, I think you could argue it might've helped him. He's obviously not bringing in a ton of talent on his own, so he may have needed more program success to get good players in. But we'd still be lacking post players, since Thorne would've been able to leave regardless as a grad transfer. And Price may have had more problems with team chemistry too, particularly with all the losing that would be happening.


9erken

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Reply #30 on: March 03, 2017, 12:46:18 pm
If things get worse than this year, then that's impressively bad and it will be time to note there is something wrong in the program. If we finish even lower in this awful conference, then Price has to be let go I think, but that would likely only happen if players quit on the coach or lots of players transfer out.

I think things are likely to get a little better, considering we'll have more experience for the younger guys and the guys leaving have struggled this year. We'll still likely have issues in the post without some serious recruiting luck/success, so I don't think we'll be all that much better. So the follow-up question is if in year 4 we are only slightly improved (say 100-200 rpi or so), the post players coming in are similar to what we've had so far, the defense is about the same or slightly better, do you give Price an extension?


stonecoldken

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Reply #31 on: March 03, 2017, 01:21:50 pm
Coach Price?  Why are we talking about the Women's Tennis team?   :)) :p
CHP sold out.  I declare Nick McEntyre our Chancellor-In-Exile!

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49er96

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Reply #32 on: March 03, 2017, 01:55:06 pm
Price needs 5 years, maybe 6.  If we don't have serious buzz around the Program in Year 5 or 6, which for some may be too long, then the Price experiment is over.  He will resign before being fired.  Next year will be more of the same.  Maybe they will surprise us all, but Year 4 should be a significant improvement and Year 5 should be talk of NCAA Tournament and winning the conference.  I'm being optimistic here, but we didn't hire Price to run a "middle of the pack" 13-16 win team every year.  And if that's the case by Year 5, he resigns.


If we wait 5 or 6 years and it isn't turned around we might as well pack in the basketball program and drop the sport.

Agreed, this recruiting cycle and next years play are key. If we don't close well with recruits this year, and don't win 18-20 next year its time to cut bait.

Anybody noticed what is happening at NC State?  Look at what Gottfried has accomplished there and he's getting run out of town.  Consequently, articles are popping up calling the job a black hole.  No coach wants to go there.  If we cut bait after 3 years, how does that make us look?  Granted any bad PR for Judy Rose would be much welcomed.

I agree.  As hard as it is to lose we have to give him time.  Firing him after next year would not be a good look for the program.  Recruiting takes time especially with what he has to sell right now.  Hopefully he can right the ship soon.

If we are having this conversation after year 5 then move on. 


cibik02

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Reply #33 on: March 03, 2017, 01:59:49 pm
If things get worse than this year, then that's impressively bad and it will be time to note there is something wrong in the program. If we finish even lower in this awful conference, then Price has to be let go I think, but that would likely only happen if players quit on the coach or lots of players transfer out.

I think things are likely to get a little better, considering we'll have more experience for the younger guys and the guys leaving have struggled this year. We'll still likely have issues in the post without some serious recruiting luck/success, so I don't think we'll be all that much better. So the follow-up question is if in year 4 we are only slightly improved (say 100-200 rpi or so), the post players coming in are similar to what we've had so far, the defense is about the same or slightly better, do you give Price an extension?

100-200 RPI is a wide window to expain as slightly improved. 200 is slightly improved... 100 would be sign Price to 5 year extension.


Nugget

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Reply #34 on: March 03, 2017, 02:51:42 pm
Hey 49er undergrads, you are bigger than UNC-CH.  Start acting like it!


itsbraille49

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Reply #35 on: March 03, 2017, 03:39:08 pm
Price needs 5 years, maybe 6.  If we don't have serious buzz around the Program in Year 5 or 6, which for some may be too long, then the Price experiment is over.  He will resign before being fired.  Next year will be more of the same.  Maybe they will surprise us all, but Year 4 should be a significant improvement and Year 5 should be talk of NCAA Tournament and winning the conference.  I'm being optimistic here, but we didn't hire Price to run a "middle of the pack" 13-16 win team every year.  And if that's the case by Year 5, he resigns.


If we wait 5 or 6 years and it isn't turned around we might as well pack in the basketball program and drop the sport.

Agreed, this recruiting cycle and next years play are key. If we don't close well with recruits this year, and don't win 18-20 next year its time to cut bait.

Anybody noticed what is happening at NC State?  Look at what Gottfried has accomplished there and he's getting run out of town.  Consequently, articles are popping up calling the job a black hole.  No coach wants to go there.  If we cut bait after 3 years, how does that make us look?  Granted any bad PR for Judy Rose would be much welcomed.

I agree.  As hard as it is to lose we have to give him time.  Firing him after next year would not be a good look for the program.  Recruiting takes time especially with what he has to sell right now.  Hopefully he can right the ship soon.

If we are having this conversation after year 5 then move on.

If we wait for year 4, 5 or 6 for Price to prove himself and he doesn't, guess what coaches will want to coach here: The coaches that want an easy job that they'll only need to give 80% of their energy to.

If next year is a step back (or sideways, arguably) we won't be scaring away any good coaching candidates by moving on. We'd have to offer more than a 5-year contract to someone with head coaching experience, but aside from that, we'd by fine. Any possible damage that could cause  would be less than or equal to the damage keeping Price for a fourth or fifth year would cause.

C-Pip's right.  About EVERYTHING.

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Hal Jordan

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Reply #36 on: March 03, 2017, 04:22:59 pm
I was going to put this in its own thread, but here just seemed right.

http://www.charlottemagazine.com/Charlotte-Magazine/March-2017/Fathers-Sons-and-Basketball-The-Mark-Price-Story/

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Mou would disagree
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Ben H

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Reply #37 on: March 03, 2017, 05:01:21 pm
I think we found out two years ago what $500k will buy you in a coach, and Price may truly be the best we can get for that./quote]

From what he's shown us so far, there are plenty of coaches out there who are better than Mark Price who make $500k or less. Better coaches in this state in fact.

Let's see the players Major couldnt keep:

Ingram - Good player, averaged 14ppg as sr.
Deuce - Good player, would have liked to kept.

Big Phil - Not sure how much to blame coaching staff on this.

Spears - Was legitimately crazy. No problem with letting him go.
Clark - Dude averaged 2ppg at USC and then transferred to Grand Canyon. No Thanks.
EVic - Absolute bust. Averaged 4.2ppg as senior for Valpo.
Lester - Didn't have the grades to make it anywhere else. Hasn't played since. Not staff's fault.
Bryan - Currently averaging 2.3ppg at UNCW. Do you really think we are missing out?
KJ - Was averaging 2.8ppg when he left. Did we really miss that?
Gohkan - Was averaging 3.3ppg. Dude was better off playing pro in Turkey
Luka - Not staff's fault.
Demario - Dude was given chance after chance after chance. Good player, but it happens.

So, Ingram and Deuce are really the only ones I feel like we lost. Demario and Shamari were good, but not the staff's fault. Other than that you listed a bunch of guys who averaged like 2 points per game.

Major could not coach or run a team to save his life. Transfers, looking back now, really weren't as much of a problem as we thought. Let's not complicate this, it's pretty simple. He just couldn't do anything with talent.

All of this is moot though. Price needs to bring in some players... or bring in an assistant who can.
Ben H


Wingate49erFan

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Reply #38 on: March 03, 2017, 06:03:08 pm

If we somehow get worse next year we should definitely move on from Price. But... I don't think we'll be worse.
I am a big Price fan going back to his playing days, so I was pretty excited when he got hired. I think we are miles ahead of Major's teams on offense, but miles behind on defense and in the post. I gotta think Price finds some way to get us playing competitive defense. I hope we see some sort of shake up of the coaching staff. Either bringing in a defensive expert or bringing in a former big man (DeMarco?) who can go find us a big or two.
The main thing I want to see is for his team to show a little more pride and heart. So much of defense is about effort, they should be leaving it all out on the floor. I don't always get that feeling from this team.
Got Lutz?


9erken

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Reply #39 on: March 03, 2017, 10:44:44 pm
If things get worse than this year, then that's impressively bad and it will be time to note there is something wrong in the program. If we finish even lower in this awful conference, then Price has to be let go I think, but that would likely only happen if players quit on the coach or lots of players transfer out.

I think things are likely to get a little better, considering we'll have more experience for the younger guys and the guys leaving have struggled this year. We'll still likely have issues in the post without some serious recruiting luck/success, so I don't think we'll be all that much better. So the follow-up question is if in year 4 we are only slightly improved (say 100-200 rpi or so), the post players coming in are similar to what we've had so far, the defense is about the same or slightly better, do you give Price an extension?

100-200 RPI is a wide window to expain as slightly improved. 200 is slightly improved... 100 would be sign Price to 5 year extension.
100+ rpi is not even in the conversation for an at-large, no NIT, probably not even an offer for the CBI, and probably 3rd or 4th in a typical year in CUSA 3.0. So I don't see it as all that much different from 199 rpi in terms of our goals. It's obviously better than where we are now, but that's not saying much, so is that enough for an extension?

Maybe it should be given how low we've sunk. I'm just not sure if that means Price is a good solution long term or not. We've given too many extensions lately to failing coaches, so maybe that's making me a little overly pessimistic. In addition, I'd be wary if Price doesn't start to have more consistent recruiting success, year 4 will be Davis' senior year.


cibik02

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Reply #40 on: March 03, 2017, 11:25:34 pm
^ I didn't say a 100 RPI was good or the long term goal BUT jumping up 100+ RPI spots in a year is rare I would imagine. Especially after being in the 200s for the last several years. I would rather be a 100 RPI team and argue on here about not making NIT over why can't we get out of 200s.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2017, 11:27:19 pm by cibik02 »


winsel1081

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Reply #41 on: March 04, 2017, 06:22:46 am
Interesting if Duke had taken that same attitude then wonder where Coach K would be right now.  If UNC had done the same wonder what the Dean Smith center would be instead.  Gary Williams would have been out of Maryland.  No Mckillop at Davidson.

I am not saying Price will be any of those coaches but just remember that some highly successful college coaches didn't had worse records in their third year than the first two!

This line of reasoning always makes me laugh.

No more than wanting to fire a coach just because his third season is worse than the first two make me laugh.

There is a lot more to look at than just record alone.


TheShowDawg

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Reply #42 on: March 04, 2017, 08:58:05 am
If we are markedly worse next year does it really matter what we do. We are a bottom 10% D1 basketball program now. We are barely above just fielding a program and not losing too much money in the process..
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49er1

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Reply #43 on: March 04, 2017, 10:18:36 am
If we are markedly worse next year does it really matter what we do. We are a bottom 10% D1 basketball program now. We are barely above just fielding a program and not losing too much money in the process..

Has anyone thought about getting the AD and coach fired and starting over again? What a novel concept. Y'all should get the ball rolling on this right here on this board. Git 'er done y'all. Don't drop the ball on this. The more posts the better. Go NINERS!!
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cibik02

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Reply #44 on: March 04, 2017, 10:24:02 am
Is coaching the only profession where you can trend downwards 3 straight years and it can still be seen as "not enough time"?


9erken

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Reply #45 on: March 04, 2017, 11:39:15 am
^ I didn't say a 100 RPI was good or the long term goal BUT jumping up 100+ RPI spots in a year is rare I would imagine. Especially after being in the 200s for the last several years. I would rather be a 100 RPI team and argue on here about not making NIT over why can't we get out of 200s.
It doesn't happen every year to every team, but the Niners have almost done that twice in the last 10 years (by our last two fired coaches):

2012: 167
2013:  68

2009: 209
2010: 77

Caveat: they were in much better leagues at the time, so that helps. I also think the Niners will be slightly better next year, so it might not actually be a 100+ drop to be somewhere larger than 100 at year 4.

I won't argue preferring to be top 200, that's obviously better. This probably isn't worth discussing all that much, but I do think it raises an interesting question: say Price's teams do show improvement to end up somewhere between 100 and 150 in the team ratings of your choice, does that kind of improvement without actually getting anywhere near post-season tournament play and without clear recruiting success suggest that Price is a good long-term solution, meaning an extension? You look at more than just rpi, but 4 years without even sniffing CBI would make things pretty tough I think even if we're better than we were in the depths of the current situation. The last two coaches got an extension for NIT appearances, and I think both of those turned out to be mistakes, so in this hypothetical you'd be giving Price an extension without even that level of success. 

Hopefully it's all moot after the Niners make the NCAA's in year 4.....


CivilNiner

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Reply #46 on: March 04, 2017, 04:19:50 pm
If we continually fire coaches after one or two years I would understand it would make Charlotte an undesirable spot for a head coaching position. Or even firing a coach mid-season.

But that isn't happening.

I think year three should be the year you pretty much know what you have in a coach. If we improve considerably next year to low 100s in RPI, I don't think that's enough unless we land some promising recruits.

Prices strength IMO will be player development, specifically with guards. I think we could see this pay off in year three. If not, it'll be tough to support a fourth year with him as our coach.


cltniners

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Reply #47 on: March 04, 2017, 04:29:50 pm
clt thinks Allison Brie could coach us up.


Ben H

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Reply #48 on: March 06, 2017, 11:56:21 am
[No more than wanting to fire a coach just because his third season is worse than the first two make me laugh.

There is a lot more to look at than just record alone.

Yes, like...

Lack of a win against anyone in the top 150 RPI
Lack of defense
Lack of recruiting (year 2)


In fact, if anything, Price has been remarkably consistent. Even Major pulled off upsets, preseason tournament wins, and recruited well. When you have inconsistency (like with Major) I understand the pause, but Price has been incredibly consistent. He loses to teams above a certain level, and wins vs only bottom feeders. His teams shoot free throws well and we are decent at 3 point shooting. We cannot defend or rebound (minus 1 player, a 5th year transfer last year).

No one is calling for him to go, now. What we are saying is that he has done nothing for us to believe that he will succeed in year 3.

In fact, most of us don't want him gone in year 3 even if we are awful - unless Judy is gone.
Ben H


s9er

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Reply #49 on: March 06, 2017, 12:02:52 pm
Actually.. The ONLY thing that matters is the record. Everything else is window dressing.


 

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