Author Topic: Not even in the top 20...in the Carolinas...  (Read 2404 times)

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dmastinsc

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on: February 05, 2017, 04:03:59 pm
I hate to pile on as we recognize the abysmal state of our MBB program, but I was actually surprised at how low we have fallen amongst our peers in North and South Carolina.  Would you believe that of all the D1 basketball programs in the Carolinas, Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in RPI? 

The list of schools with a higher RPI than ours to date...

ACC
North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Clemson

SEC
South Carolina

A-10
Davidson

AAC
East Carolina

CAA
UNC Wilmington
College of Charleston
Elon

Southern Conference
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Wofford

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina

Big South
UNC Asheville
Winthrop
Gardner Webb
High Point

Atlantic Sun
USC Upstate

Mid-Eastern Athletic
NC Central

We could gain a few if we close out with a couple more wins than expected, but who would have thought we'd ever be the 22nd worst team in the Carolina's???


919R

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Reply #1 on: February 05, 2017, 04:13:02 pm
I hate to pile on as we recognize the abysmal state of our MBB program, but I was actually surprised at how low we have fallen amongst our peers in North and South Carolina.  Would you believe that of all the D1 basketball programs in the Carolinas, Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in RPI? 

The list of schools with a higher RPI than ours to date...

ACC
North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Clemson

SEC
South Carolina

A-10
Davidson

AAC
East Carolina

CAA
UNC Wilmington
College of Charleston
Elon

Southern Conference
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Wofford

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina

Big South
UNC Asheville
Winthrop
Gardner Webb
High Point

Atlantic Sun
USC Upstate

Mid-Eastern Athletic
NC Central

We could gain a few if we close out with a couple more wins than expected, but who would have thought we'd ever be the 22nd worst team in the Carolina's???
we are not. All this does is show how "off" that even the RPI can be. Even with our disappointing squad, we are easily better than at least 6-8 of those teams. Heck, we beat 2 of them this year. 2-3 record against this group.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 04:15:35 pm by 919R »


cltniners

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Reply #2 on: February 05, 2017, 04:46:57 pm
clt says our curtain game is top 3


itsbraille49

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Reply #3 on: February 06, 2017, 07:53:39 am
I hate to pile on as we recognize the abysmal state of our MBB program, but I was actually surprised at how low we have fallen amongst our peers in North and South Carolina.  Would you believe that of all the D1 basketball programs in the Carolinas, Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in RPI? 

The list of schools with a higher RPI than ours to date...

ACC
North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Clemson

SEC
South Carolina

A-10
Davidson

AAC
East Carolina

CAA
UNC Wilmington
College of Charleston
Elon

Southern Conference
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Wofford

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina

Big South
UNC Asheville
Winthrop
Gardner Webb
High Point

Atlantic Sun
USC Upstate

Mid-Eastern Athletic
NC Central

We could gain a few if we close out with a couple more wins than expected, but who would have thought we'd ever be the 22nd worst team in the Carolina's???
we are not. All this does is show how "off" that even the RPI can be. Even with our disappointing squad, we are easily better than at least 6-8 of those teams. Heck, we beat 2 of them this year. 2-3 record against this group.

The RPI isn't perfect, but using the fact that it ranks teams ahead of other teams they have lost to is a pretty weak argument against it. We may have won 2 of 5 games against this group of 21 teams, but if we play the remaining 16 teams how many do you think we win? Another 2 or 3 if we're lucky.

C-Pip's right.  About EVERYTHING.

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sportsman1417

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Reply #4 on: February 06, 2017, 08:11:47 am
I wouldn't bet money they we would beat any other D1 team. I don't know how that fits into your rankings or not, but we bad.


s9er

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Reply #5 on: February 06, 2017, 08:30:28 am
Ohhhhh.. The I remember the good old days when we'd get pissed at the Mempiss insult that we were only the 6th best team in NC..

Now we have an argument that the 22nd RPI ranking is wrong and that we are more like in the 16-18 rank.. This may be the very definition of determining the clean end of a turd.

The fact that we split home games with 2 of the worst college basketball programs in America tells me we are at road kill, no matter what metric you want to use to rank... The only question at this point is how long it will take the road crew to scrape the carcass from the road.


Ben H

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Reply #6 on: February 06, 2017, 08:45:29 am
The fact that we are arguing over whether we are the 22nd or 18th worst team in the Carolinas only underscores what a travesty this program has become.


austinniner

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Reply #7 on: February 06, 2017, 09:41:32 am
Ohhhhh.. The I remember the good old days when we'd get pissed at the Mempiss insult that we were only the 6th best team in NC..

Now we have an argument that the 22nd RPI ranking is wrong and that we are more like in the 16-18 rank.. This may be the very definition of determining the clean end of a turd.

The fact that we split home games with 2 of the worst college basketball programs in America tells me we are at road kill, no matter what metric you want to use to rank... The only question at this point is how long it will take the road crew to scrape the carcass from the road.


I believe it was the 6th best in the CAROLINAS - North and South.  And yes, look how far we have fallen.
"Noon is tough for friggin fans" - Brad Lambert


bleedsgreenandgold

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Reply #8 on: February 06, 2017, 10:15:39 am
The Falcons blew a 25 point lead...


Ben H

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Reply #9 on: February 06, 2017, 10:21:16 am
Kenpom currently has us at 227. Last year we ended at 193.


TRLeader

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Reply #10 on: February 06, 2017, 01:28:16 pm
Ohhhhh.. The I remember the good old days when we'd get pissed at the Mempiss insult that we were only the 6th best team in NC..

Now we have an argument that the 22nd RPI ranking is wrong and that we are more like in the 16-18 rank.. This may be the very definition of determining the clean end of a turd.

The fact that we split home games with 2 of the worst college basketball programs in America tells me we are at road kill, no matter what metric you want to use to rank... The only question at this point is how long it will take the road crew to scrape the carcass from the road.


Truth


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919R

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Reply #11 on: February 06, 2017, 07:08:28 pm
I hate to pile on as we recognize the abysmal state of our MBB program, but I was actually surprised at how low we have fallen amongst our peers in North and South Carolina.  Would you believe that of all the D1 basketball programs in the Carolinas, Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in RPI? 

The list of schools with a higher RPI than ours to date...

ACC
North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Clemson

SEC
South Carolina

A-10
Davidson

AAC
East Carolina

CAA
UNC Wilmington
College of Charleston
Elon

Southern Conference
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Wofford

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina

Big South
UNC Asheville
Winthrop
Gardner Webb
High Point

Atlantic Sun
USC Upstate

Mid-Eastern Athletic
NC Central

We could gain a few if we close out with a couple more wins than expected, but who would have thought we'd ever be the 22nd worst team in the Carolina's???
we are not. All this does is show how "off" that even the RPI can be. Even with our disappointing squad, we are easily better than at least 6-8 of those teams. Heck, we beat 2 of them this year. 2-3 record against this group.

The RPI isn't perfect, but using the fact that it ranks teams ahead of other teams they have lost to is a pretty weak argument against it. We may have won 2 of 5 games against this group of 21 teams, but if we play the remaining 16 teams how many do you think we win? Another 2 or 3 if we're lucky.
.  Bull. I see 8-10 that would be toss-ups at least. We get it. You hate price.


upperdeck

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Reply #12 on: February 06, 2017, 07:33:51 pm
I hate to pile on as we recognize the abysmal state of our MBB program, but I was actually surprised at how low we have fallen amongst our peers in North and South Carolina.  Would you believe that of all the D1 basketball programs in the Carolinas, Charlotte currently ranks 22nd in RPI? 

The list of schools with a higher RPI than ours to date...

ACC
North Carolina
Duke
NC State
Wake Forest
Clemson

SEC
South Carolina

A-10
Davidson

AAC
East Carolina

CAA
UNC Wilmington
College of Charleston
Elon

Southern Conference
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Wofford

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina

Big South
UNC Asheville
Winthrop
Gardner Webb
High Point

Atlantic Sun
USC Upstate

Mid-Eastern Athletic
NC Central

We could gain a few if we close out with a couple more wins than expected, but who would have thought we'd ever be the 22nd worst team in the Carolina's???
we are not. All this does is show how "off" that even the RPI can be. Even with our disappointing squad, we are easily better than at least 6-8 of those teams. Heck, we beat 2 of them this year. 2-3 record against this group.

The RPI isn't perfect, but using the fact that it ranks teams ahead of other teams they have lost to is a pretty weak argument against it. We may have won 2 of 5 games against this group of 21 teams, but if we play the remaining 16 teams how many do you think we win? Another 2 or 3 if we're lucky.
.  Bull. I see 8-10 that would be toss-ups at least. We get it. You hate price.

Have always hated Rpi. If I lose by 100 to a good team, why should my ranking get better just because I played them? Shouldn't that be a bad lose either way.

 It is just another tool to minimize loses against strong opponents. (See ACC top 25 teams beating themselves). They had to have a way to make Good teams that lose to good teams to not be penalized as much.  The RPI accomplishes that. For the bottom 3/4 of the RPI rankings, you can just throw out any real comparison.


49er1

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Reply #13 on: February 06, 2017, 08:05:35 pm
Kenpom currently has us at 227. Last year we ended at 193.

Losses to USC upstate and fau can be blamed for this current ranking.
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JaMiNNiNeR

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Reply #14 on: February 06, 2017, 08:48:24 pm
Who cares about RPI if you don't make the NCAA tournament? Whether you are 7th or 22nd you are still going to be sitting at home.


Expectations Manager

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Reply #15 on: February 06, 2017, 08:55:51 pm
Who cares about RPI if you don't make the NCAA tournament? Whether you are 7th or 22nd you are still going to be sitting at home.
FUnny. WBB is 7th, MBB is 22nd.
Ten people who speak make more noise than ten thousand who are silent.


cltniners

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Reply #16 on: February 07, 2017, 06:21:03 am
clt says we loved the rpi in the good ol days.


Ben H

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Reply #17 on: February 07, 2017, 08:05:58 am
Who cares about RPI if you don't make the NCAA tournament? Whether you are 7th or 22nd you are still going to be sitting at home.

I do, because if you're 7th you will have a lot easier path and more opportunity to get back to the tournament than if you are 22nd. But I get your overall point, this type of NCAA drought has made us irrelevant, and NCAA appearances are more important than RPI.

And for those of you who don't like RPI, kenpom says pretty much the same thing. Any way you slice it the answer is we suck.


NinerWupAss

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Reply #18 on: February 07, 2017, 08:21:11 am
Why are y'all talking MBB?  The women are kicking butt!  Judy said so!  Go Title IXers!
Mahna Mahna


9erken

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Reply #19 on: February 07, 2017, 08:27:29 am
Have always hated Rpi. If I lose by 100 to a good team, why should my ranking get better just because I played them? Shouldn't that be a bad lose either way.

 It is just another tool to minimize loses against strong opponents. (See ACC top 25 teams beating themselves). They had to have a way to make Good teams that lose to good teams to not be penalized as much.  The RPI accomplishes that. For the bottom 3/4 of the RPI rankings, you can just throw out any real comparison.
RPI probably favors the power conferences the least out of all the ratings because it has a much greater home court correction than the other ratings do. This is especially true in the OOC, where most power conference schools play very few true road games. It's not perfect, but I think the other ratings underrate the benefits of home court advantage. It's difficult to accurately reflect how differently teams have to play when they are on the road (softer D to avoid fouls, close calls tend to go the other way, etc.), particularly when a lesser-known team is playing the well-known home team, and the better non-power teams rarely get very good teams to come play them on their own home court. It ends up being a little bit of a self-fulfilling prediction (the power conference team gets stronger numbers OOC because it plays at home more often with an undercorrection for homecourt advantage, it's more likely to win it's home games due to that advantage, and so the other power conference teams that beat them in conference play look stronger than they should). It's no surprise that the selection committees have been using the rpi-SOS to evaluate teams but not individual rpi, because individual rpi takes home court into account and the SOS does not.

There's obviously limitations to it and some teams probably end up with misleading ratings due to quirks in how the schedule played out. The more sophisticated ratings could be much better than rpi IMO if they just had a slightly larger correction for home court.


NinerAdvocate

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Reply #20 on: February 07, 2017, 09:07:18 am
... and the second that the home court correction was introduced to the RPI, ESPN et al immediately started discounting it. Soon after, they came up with their own metrics such as the inane ESPN BPI which is just an excuse to reverse the correction...

I will never forget the days of the NCAA committee seeding teams based on RPI/4 formula, even the year we had 10 true road wins against IIRC a top 30 or top 40 schedule. 32 RPI / 4 = here's your 8 seed Charlotte.


Ben H

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Reply #21 on: February 07, 2017, 09:35:59 am
... and the second that the home court correction was introduced to the RPI, ESPN et al immediately started discounting it. Soon after, they came up with their own metrics such as the inane ESPN BPI which is just an excuse to reverse the correction...

I will never forget the days of the NCAA committee seeding teams based on RPI/4 formula, even the year we had 10 true road wins against IIRC a top 30 or top 40 schedule. 32 RPI / 4 = here's your 8 seed Charlotte.

Middle Tennessee is projected as an 8 seed, per CBS. I think their RPI is around 30 as well. Slight tangent, but I had to give props to our conference mates. Maybe they can have a string of continued success.


NewNiner

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Reply #22 on: February 07, 2017, 12:05:12 pm
Charlotte played 3 true road games OOC.  Those in the top-25 or RV are below:


TeamTrue OOC Road Games
Gonzaga0
Villanova2
Kansas2
Louisville1
Oregon1
Baylor1
Wisconsin2
UNC-CHeat2
Arizona1
UCLA1
Cincinnati2
Virginia3
WVU1
FSU0
Kentucky1
Purdue1
Florida3
Duke0
South Carolina2
Saint Mary's2
Maryland1
Butler2
Creighton2
Xavier3
SMU2
Wichita State1
USC2
Notre Dame0
Northwestern1
California0
Iowa State2
New Mexico State5
Monmouth5
VCU2
Oklahoma State3
Vermont6
Kansas State2
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itsbraille49

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Reply #23 on: February 08, 2017, 05:06:47 pm
Have always hated Rpi. If I lose by 100 to a good team, why should my ranking get better just because I played them? Shouldn't that be a bad lose either way.

 It is just another tool to minimize loses against strong opponents. (See ACC top 25 teams beating themselves). They had to have a way to make Good teams that lose to good teams to not be penalized as much.  The RPI accomplishes that. For the bottom 3/4 of the RPI rankings, you can just throw out any real comparison.
RPI probably favors the power conferences the least out of all the ratings because it has a much greater home court correction than the other ratings do. This is especially true in the OOC, where most power conference schools play very few true road games. It's not perfect, but I think the other ratings underrate the benefits of home court advantage. It's difficult to accurately reflect how differently teams have to play when they are on the road (softer D to avoid fouls, close calls tend to go the other way, etc.), particularly when a lesser-known team is playing the well-known home team, and the better non-power teams rarely get very good teams to come play them on their own home court. It ends up being a little bit of a self-fulfilling prediction (the power conference team gets stronger numbers OOC because it plays at home more often with an undercorrection for homecourt advantage, it's more likely to win it's home games due to that advantage, and so the other power conference teams that beat them in conference play look stronger than they should). It's no surprise that the selection committees have been using the rpi-SOS to evaluate teams but not individual rpi, because individual rpi takes home court into account and the SOS does not.

There's obviously limitations to it and some teams probably end up with misleading ratings due to quirks in how the schedule played out. The more sophisticated ratings could be much better than rpi IMO if they just had a slightly larger correction for home court.

Actually, the RPI benefits Power Conference teams most of all because the home-court advantage is very limited.

Ratings like KenPom and Sagarin really only rate you based on your performance based on expectations, and that is very much effected by where games are played. The reason Power Conference benefit so much in the RPI is from home games.

This is due to snowballing of SOS in-conference because game weights for site location disappear in the SOS of teams.

Let's say Georgetown goes 10-5 (.667) in non-conference (7-1 at home, 2-2 Neutral, 1-2 on road), their adjusted win loss would be 7.6-4.6 (.622), which is marginally worse than true W-L. Now, when Villanova gets to play Georgetown, and Georgetown's record is added to Villanova's strength of schedule, they get to add 10-5, NOT 7.6-4.6. Over 18 games that small boost really adds up and Villanova's RPI is better for it.

C-Pip's right.  About EVERYTHING.

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(11:24:23) stonecoldken: CPip is the Cornbread of Engineers.



 

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